Good Friday morning. Want this by email? Sign up here.
Last year, the U.S. economy seemed solid. Skittishness in the stock and bond markets appeared at odds with signs of stability on the ground. But this week’s flow of distressing news, showing ever more evidence of slowing growth, suggests that the markets had cause for concern:
• Apple reduced its revenue expectations for the first time in 16 years, citing weak iPhone sales in China.
• Delta Air Lines said its fare revenue, although growing, would fall short of the company’s earlier forecast.
• The American manufacturing sector slowed sharply last month, according to a closely watched index released yesterday.
And things could get worse, especially amid trade tensions with China, as companies line up to report fourth-quarter results in the next few weeks. Kevin Hassett, the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, told CNN on yesterday:
“There are a heck of a lot of U.S. companies that have a lot of sales in China that are basically going to be watching their earnings be downgraded next year until we get a deal with China.”
More on markets: Forty-six percent of American companies issuing estimates for the fourth-quarter have revised their outlook lower, the most since President Trump’s inauguration. Traders are placing bets on whether the Fed will be forced to change course by a slowing economy and swooning stock market. Investors have piled into money market funds as a shelter from market turmoil. China will keep trying to attract bond investors, and a fresh campaign to promote its currency is expected. If all this news makes you want to flee, that’s understandable. It’s also a bad idea.
Today’s DealBook Briefing was written by Andrew Ross Sorkin and Stephen Grocer in New York, and Tiffany Hsu and Gregory Schmidt in Paris.
The Labor Department will release its official hiring and unemployment figures for December at 8:30 a.m.
What to expect: Economists anticipate a gain of about 180,000 jobs, a rise from 155,000 reported in November. Average hourly earnings are expected to tick up 0.3 percent in December from November and 3 percent from a year earlier. The unemployment rate is forecast to fall to 3.6 percent from 3.7 percent.
What that means for the economy: Economists believe that fears of an imminent recession are overblown. The unemployment rate is near a 50-year low. Job openings have hit record highs, and a growing number of workers are quitting, a sign of confidence in the hiring outlook.
The Fed’s outlook: An indication of the Fed’s views on rates could come this morning at 10:30, when the central bank chairman, Jerome H. Powell, is scheduled to answer questions at a panel discussion in Atlanta with his two immediate predecessors, Janet Yellen and Ben S. Bernanke.
The world economy has relied for years on the shopping stamina of Chinese consumers. But that spending engine seems to be sputtering.
Apple’s surprise announcement this week was just one indicator that Chinese shoppers are pulling back. Amid a tense trade war with the United States, a shaky job market and efforts by Beijing to rein in what one analyst called a decade-long “debt-fueled binge,” Chinese consumers are feeling less than confident. Property sales are down, as are auto and retail sales.
The NYT’s Alexandra Stevenson, Li Yuan and Raymond Zhong write:
“A significant pullback could have a big impact on a world looking for engines of growth, on companies that counted on China’s continuing expansion and on global investors who have long viewed Chinese consumers as a steady source of profits.”
The Chinese premier, Li Keqiang, met today with the three largest commercial banks in the country and pushed for policies to help bolster the economy, including lower taxes and fees and more financing for small and private companies. Today, China’s central bank said that, by Jan. 25, it will scale back the amount of cash it requires lenders to hold in reserve by one percentage point.
The tech giant’s problems are not limited to nervous Chinese consumers, according to the WSJ. Competitors in China, such as Huawei, are moving in on Apple’s smartphone market share. In India, a growth market, Apple is a minor player. Customers in the U.S. are keeping their phones longer.
Tom Warren at The Verge had this take:
“People are upgrading less, carrier subsidies aren’t enough, and ,000 phones are making consumers pause and consider. Mix that in with fears of a recession, and 2019 could be challenging for Apple and many others.”
The company may pull iPhones from its German stores after Qualcomm took steps yesterday to enforce a court order last month banning the sale of certain versions of the device. The order stems from a ruling that Apple infringed on the chip-maker’s patents involving power-saving technology.
Apple’s woes were keenly felt yesterday by its third-largest shareholder, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway. Tumbling prices for Apple and airline stocks caused more than billion in value to evaporate from Mr. Buffett’s stakes in the companies, according to the FT.
The companies, both top sellers of cancer drugs with Bristol-Myers’s Opdivo and Celgene’s Revlimid, agreed to a cash-and-stock deal valued at roughly billion. It was one of the largest takeovers in the industry’s history.
• The deal values Celgene shares at 2.43 apiece, or a nearly 54 percent premium on the stock’s closing price on Wednesday.
• The combined entity will produce nine drugs with annual sales of more than billion each.
• The WSJ points out some concerns with the acquisition: Bristol-Myers could take on more than billion in debt. It will have to help Celgene, whose stock slumped nearly 40 percent last year, diversify its pipeline beyond Revlimid.
A number of fund managers say that traders who use quantitative strategies to exploit market signals have made markets more chaotic and unpredictable. But Clifford Asness, the founder of AQR, one of the world’s biggest hedge fund groups, told the FT that investors who blame the recent market turmoil on quant strategies are “insane.”
AQR suffered some of the worst losses in its 20-year history in 2018, and Mr. Asness said that critics were only trying to find excuses for their own poor performance. He pointed out that markets had always suffered bouts of turbulence even before quant strategies were introduced, and said there was little hard evidence that they were feeding volatility.
Square hired Amrita Ahuja from Blizzard Entertainment to be its new CFO, replacing Sarah Friar. (CNBC)
Mark Reuss, who joined General Motors in 1983 as an intern, was appointed president of the automaker. He will succeed Dan Amman after being tapped to lead the company’s global product group and Cadillac last the summer. (CNET)
• As part of a move into the fast-growing jet rental business, the private equity firm KKR said it would invest billion into a commercial aircraft venture with Altavair, an aircraft lessor and financier that manages more than 200 jets for investors. (WSJ)
• Alphabet’s life sciences research unit, Verily, raised billion in an investment round led by the private equity firm Silver Lake. (CNBC)
• The N.F.L., once an adamant opponent of gambling, is making Caesars Entertainment its first official casino sponsor. The multiyear deal excludes sports betting and fantasy football. (AP)
Politics & Policy
• The newly Democratic-controlled House passed a plan to reopen the government. But the shutdown isn’t over. The Senate may not even vote on it. (NYT)
• The shutdown, which affects the Securities and Exchange Commission, could cause delays in anticipated I.P.O.s from Uber, Lyft and others. (WaPo)
• The congressional freshman class of 2019 includes the most female and racially diverse group of representatives ever elected to the House. (NYT)
• Democrats wary of a debt-ceiling drama involving President Trump are leaning on an arcane measure called the Gephardt Rule to shield markets from threats of default. (MarketWatch)
• The national debt has increased by more than trillion during President Trump’s time in office, reaching .974 trillion at the end of last year. (CNN)
• Chinese and U.S. officials will meet in Beijing early next week to discuss trade, with a focus on intellectual property protections and Chinese industrial policy. (FT)
• Huawei punished two employees after an iPhone, a competitor of the company’s P-series handsets, was used to send out New Year’s greetings on Huawei’s official Twitter account. (Reuters)
The best of the rest
• Carlos Ghosn, the fallen Nissan Motor chairman accused of financial misconduct, will appear in court in Tokyo on Tuesday in his first public appearance since his arrest in November (NYT)
• As more consumers buy video games digitally, sales have been flat for the retailer GameStop while its stock price has sunk, prompting some to suggest that the company might be better off selling itself. (WSJ)
• U.S. automakers sold 17.3 million new cars and light trucks last year, an increase of 0.6 percent from 2017. But the upswing was driven by sales to fleets, while sales to individual consumers were flat. (NYT)
• Wagering on higher inflation was a bad bet last year. (WSJ)
• U.S. authorities charged three former Credit Suisse bankers in connection with a billion fraud scheme that also involved the former finance minister of Mozambique. (WSJ)
• Herb Kelleher, a co-founder and former chief executive of Southwest Airlines who turned the carrier into one of the nation’s most successful and admired companies, died yesterday at age 87. (NYT)
• Daniel Loeb, the activist hedge fund manager, is another all-star investor who struggled in 2018. His firm, Third Point, lost about 6 percent in December, bringing its total loss for the year to about 11 percent. (CNBC)
• Property markets in Australia, Hong Kong and Singapore show signs of softening, an indication that Asia is succumbing to the global property slowdown. (Bloomberg)
• The yield on the two-year Treasury note dropped below 2.4 percent, reaching parity with the federal funds effective rate for the first time since 2008. (Reuters)
• Retail vacancies in the U.S. inched higher in the fourth quarter, underscoring that the sector has withstood store closings across the country, according to a new report. Many feared that vacancy rates would soar and rents would plummet. (Reuters)
• The yield on Japanese sovereign bonds fell to its lowest level in more than two years after concerns about the Chinese economy and global growth trends sparked a sell-off of equities in Tokyo. (FT)
Thanks for reading! We’ll see you Monday.
We’d love your feedback. Please email thoughts and suggestions to email@example.com.B:
“【是】【吗】？”【殇】【聿】【见】【妹】【妹】【高】【兴】，【也】【不】【觉】【笑】【了】，【抬】【眸】【打】【量】【那】【个】【叫】【明】【珠】【的】【女】【孩】【子】，【却】【觉】【有】【些】【眼】【熟】。 “【姐】【姐】【怎】【么】【不】【识】【得】【我】【了】？”【明】【珠】【见】【殇】【聿】【疑】【惑】，【含】【笑】【轻】【语】，“【姐】【姐】【纵】【不】【识】【得】【我】，【难】【不】【成】【也】【忘】【了】【溪】【水】【边】【儿】【上】，【与】【你】【一】【同】【吃】【兔】【子】【的】【少】【年】？” “【是】【你】？”【殇】【聿】【轻】【笑】，“【你】【做】【了】【女】【孩】【子】【打】【扮】，【我】【一】【时】【竟】【未】【认】【出】。” “【姐】【姐】【是】
【精】【英】【弟】【子】【收】【取】【时】，【出】【具】【了】【伊】【思】【瓜】【因】【的】【遗】【物】。【张】【百】【威】【当】【然】【知】【道】【有】【人】【针】【对】【他】【有】【出】【方】【法】【了】，【他】【当】【然】【不】【需】【找】【精】【英】【弟】【子】【索】【要】【奉】【献】【点】，【他】【提】【出】【了】【申】【述】，【这】【也】【是】【冥】【神】【帝】【冥】【火】【门】【门】【的】【种】【规】【矩】，【在】【你】【对】【某】【事】【有】【贰】【言】【的】【时】【分】，【能】【够】【申】【述】【由】【冥】【神】【帝】【冥】【火】【门】【主】【和】【元】【老】【们】【一】【起】【判】【决】。 **【喜】【百】【淫】【贼】 【日】【后】，【张】【百】【威】【被】【传】【召】【到】【最】【初】【他】【入】【门】【时】【的】【大】【殿】
【只】【见】【她】【面】【色】【一】【变】，【运】【起】【内】【力】【双】【手】【成】【爪】【向】【我】【袭】【来】，【她】【的】【速】【度】【是】【很】【快】，【若】【是】【躲】【不】【过】，【这】【一】【击】【怕】【是】【凶】【多】【吉】【少】。 【不】【过】【我】【总】【是】【圣】【女】，【功】【夫】【并】【不】【差】【她】【的】【动】【作】【我】【看】【得】【清】【清】【楚】【楚】，【我】【侧】【身】，【却】【猛】【然】【发】【现】【身】【子】【不】【听】【使】【唤】，【速】【度】【慢】【了】【很】【多】，【浑】【身】【提】【不】【上】【气】。 【用】【尽】【全】【身】【力】【气】【才】【险】【险】【避】【开】【这】【一】【掌】。 【都】【说】【蛮】【夷】【人】【生】【性】【狡】【诈】，【果】【然】【如】【此】。 白小姐救世灵码报图纸“【我】【没】【想】【到】【原】【来】【你】【也】【在】【这】【个】【学】【校】【里】【啊】。” “【啊】，【我】【还】【以】【为】【要】【过】【很】【久】【才】【能】【见】【到】【你】【呢】。” 【蒋】【正】【从】【在】【这】【个】【世】【界】【觉】【醒】【起】【来】，【就】【一】【直】【很】【抑】【郁】，【哪】【怕】【笑】【得】【很】【开】【心】，【却】【总】【会】【心】【内】【空】【空】。 【因】【为】【这】【个】【世】【界】【没】【有】【她】。 【乔】【玲】【有】【些】【欢】【喜】，【拉】【着】【蒋】【正】【的】【手】【就】【不】【愿】【放】【开】。【所】【幸】【此】【时】【已】【经】【时】【近】【傍】【晚】，【路】【上】【除】【了】【奔】【跑】，【散】【步】，【吃】【东】【西】，【背】【单】
【随】【着】【天】【幕】【颜】【色】【的】【变】【换】，【那】【些】【在】【各】【个】【花】【中】【世】【界】【内】【的】【形】【形】**【的】【孩】【子】【们】【不】【由】【得】【抬】【起】【头】，【他】【们】【看】【着】【开】【始】【变】【动】【的】【虚】【空】【和】【天】【幕】，【皆】【是】【瞪】【着】【眼】【睛】，【露】【出】【惊】【恐】【神】【色】。 “【叔】【叔】【他】……【不】【会】【有】【事】【吧】。” “【不】【可】【能】，【叔】【叔】【那】【么】【强】，【这】【些】【外】【来】【者】【肯】【定】【不】【能】【伤】【他】。” 【孩】【子】【们】【如】【此】【议】【论】，【却】【也】【无】【比】【担】【心】。 【距】【那】【些】【外】【来】【者】【和】【叔】【叔】【从】【此】【地】
【通】【过】【夜】【鸿】【睿】【和】【花】【凝】【峰】【的】【对】【话】，【夜】【鸿】【睿】【才】【知】【道】，【之】【前】【花】【凝】【儿】【跟】【程】【白】【简】【的】【事】【情】，【花】【凝】【儿】【并】【没】【有】【跟】【她】【家】【里】【人】【说】。 【看】【样】【子】，【也】【只】【有】【他】，【才】【能】【跟】【着】【她】【回】【家】。 【意】【识】【到】【这】【个】，【夜】【鸿】【睿】【心】【情】【都】【变】【的】【不】【错】【起】【来】。 …… 【第】【二】【天】【一】【早】，【吃】【过】【早】【饭】，【花】【凝】【儿】【的】【父】【亲】【便】【开】【车】【农】【用】【车】，【他】【们】【都】【坐】【在】【车】【后】【斗】【上】。 【半】【个】【小】【时】【后】，【他】【们】【一】
“【浩】【浩】……” “【你】【们】【离】【婚】【了】，【为】【什】【么】【不】【问】【问】【我】【想】【要】【跟】【谁】【一】【起】【生】【活】？” “【浩】【浩】，【你】【爸】【爸】【比】【我】【有】【钱】，【他】【会】【给】【你】【最】【好】【的】【生】【活】【和】【教】【育】……” 【浩】【浩】【打】【断】【了】【林】【静】【好】【的】【话】，【激】【动】【的】【吼】【道】，“【你】【根】【本】【就】【不】【爱】【我】！” “【浩】【浩】！” 【浩】【浩】【伤】【心】【的】【看】【着】【林】【静】【好】，【眼】【眶】【中】【的】【泪】【水】【再】【也】【止】【不】【住】，【流】【淌】【了】【下】【来】。【他】【摸】【了】【一】【把】【脸】【上】【的】【泪】